Today I’m going to show you exactly how I’m trading the US Dollar Index (DXY), EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, and AUDUSD.
The DXY reclaimed 102.60 last week but dollar bulls are having a difficult time cracking the 103.50 resistance area.
That could lead to a sweep of some recent EURUSD highs and pullbacks for other pairs like USDJPY and USDCHF.
I’ll discuss all of that and more in today’s video, including key levels and targets for next week.
Let’s begin!
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US Dollar Index (DXY) Forecast
The DXY broke above 102.60 last week, which was a critical level to open up 103.50.
As you may know, I’ve been bullish on the dollar since it reclaimed 101.90 at the start of the year.
However, 103.50 is proving to be a difficult hurdle for dollar bulls.
That isn’t surprising when you consider its significance going back to 2016.
It will take a sustained break above 103.50 on the higher time frames to expose 104.20.
That 104.20 area will be key in the coming weeks, as the DXY needs a sustained break above it to flip the trend from bearish to bullish.
Key support is 103.10 and 102.60, with the latter being a must-hold level for bulls.
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EURUSD Forecast
EURUSD has been a tough currency pair to trade so far in 2024.
I’ve been cautiously bearish on the euro since EURUSD failed to hold above 1.1000 on January 2nd.
That confirmed a fakeout that sent the EURUSD over 70 pips lower last week.
However, the price action between Wednesday and Friday last week was less than favorable.
It’s unclear whether the euro is holding above or below the 1.0880 handle, but I do think the October trend line will be a factor.
If it holds as support, we could see a sweep of the recent highs and a full retest of 1.1000 as new resistance.
Alternatively, a sustained break below would be bearish and would open up 1.0755.
USDJPY Forecast
Last weekend, I discussed how USDJPY holding above 144.80 was bullish, and last week we got a 380-pip rally from the pair.
We saw USDJPY break above 146.50 to expose 148.35 to end the week.
That’s the next test for bulls, and you can see how USDJPY had trouble getting through 148.35 between Wednesday and Friday.
There’s the potential for a pullback while below that mark on a daily closing basis.
Of course, a sustained break above 148.35 on the daily time frame would expose 149.70.
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USDCHF Forecast
USDCHF has been an excellent performer since I wrote about the bullish potential earlier this month.
We’ve since seen the pair close several days and a week above the 0.8580 July lows.
That confirms the fakeout, which could be bullish toward 0.8900.
However, there’s a chance we get a pullback here while the DXY is below 103.50.
But sellers would have to take out the 0.8670 low from December if they intend to force a more significant pullback.
All in all, I remain bullish on USDCHF while above 0.8580 on the higher time frames, but timing is key, as always.
AUDUSD Forecast
AUDUSD dropped below its 2022 trend line last week, but the weekly close has me staying patient for additional clues next week.
In last week’s video we looked at a possible fakeout at this trend line, hinting at a weaker AUDUSD.
We even saw the pair bounce from 0.6520 support.
However, I’m not acting on anything just yet, given Friday’s borderline close.
I need to see something more convincing than this to open a short.
So, for now, I’ll stay patient to see what the first few days of the week bring.
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2024-01-20 15:30:00Z
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