An inflection point may have been reached last week. Despite, Chair Powell's insistence that the Fed did not adopt an easing bias and confirmed that there is still no talk of a cut, the market knows better. The implied yield of December 2024 Fed funds futures contract is about 4.45%, which is to say, the market is discounting not only the two cuts in the Fed's September projections, but a third cut, and the risk again (~60%), of a fourth cut. The first cut is now fully discounted by the end of Q2 24. The disappointing employment report pushed on an open door, sending US rates and the greenback lower. It fits into the ... (full story)
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2023-11-05 03:55:00Z
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