Forex technical analysis: EURUSD hanging above and below the 17 day midpoint

Yesterday was spent mostly below the 50% midpoint. Today has been spent mostly above the 50% midpoint.

The EURUSD has traded in a 1.1823 to 1.2092 up and down range for 17 days. The midpoint of that range is 1.1957. The 200 hour MA comes in at 1.19635. Most of the trading yesterday was spent below the 50% (not perfect but mostly). Today, the price moved above and has spent most of the day above the midpoint and the 200 hour MA.

Honestly, the price action ain't pretty. Looking at the 5-minute chart, it is full of lots of ups and downs. The MAs (blue and green lines in chart below) are not helping much.

With the FOMC tomorrow, I am not too surprised. It may be, the pair continues the waffle around the midpoint until a judgment is made after the Fed. We know the balance sheet taper will likely start. The question that may be answered more clearly is "Will there be a December tightening?".

If the market starts to price one in, we could see the pair trade to the south side of the 50% and look toward the low of the range at 1.1823.

If the Fed is wait and see, the pair could move toward the 1.2092 area. On a break of either extreme, we should see momentum in the direction of the break.