Forex technical analysis: GBPUSD back above 1.3532

What's so great about that?

The GBPUSD has moved back above the 1.3532 level and is running higher again. We trade at the NY session high price. The price peaked at a much higher level in the UK morning session after retail sales came in much better than expectations (click here). That move was short lived, however, and the pair came all the way back down from whence it all began.

That move lower took the price back below the 1.3532 level and for the next 5 or so hours, the price traded above and below that level. The last bar started to move away from that level and the current hourly bar is moving further away. Buyers are reasserting themselves.

So what is so great about the 1.3532 level?

Looking at the daily chart, below, the swing high AFTER the Brexit plunge corrected up to 1.3532 (on June 29th). Subsequent highs after that day came in at 1.3479 (on July 15th) and 1.3443 (on September 6th, 2016). Those levels have not been breached until Friday of last week.

The last two day's has seen the price trade in that area (between 1.3443 and 1.3532) with both day's closing in the "yellow area". Today, we are making a break back above the area (and above the 1.3532 level).

Are buyers making a play? It looks like the pair is trying again at the very least (after the failed run on the retail sales).

Of course the Fed decision later today will have a say in the USD portion of the GBPUSD pair. If the Fed is more hawkish, we could/should see a retracement back into the yellow area. However, it seems the corrective action ran it's course for the pair and holding in that area is a bullish thing. Nevertheless, the risk will increase through the Fed and moves below the 1.3532, 1.3479 and 1.3442 will increase bullish anxiety (and likely lead to some selling).

However, be on the look out for a fall and a bounce back too. The price action is telling me the buyers are still interested.

Drilling to the hourly chart, the correction yesterday stalled against a broken trend line (see red circle 9 in the chart below). That was bullish. The lows today stayed above that line and above the 100 hour MA (blue line currently at 1.35067). On a move back below the 1.3532, the 100 hour MA and trend line will also be eyed for a potential "bounce support" level. Be aware (see chart below).