BOE raises bank rate by 50 bps to 4.00%, as expected - ForexLive

• Prior 3.50%
• Bank rate vote 7-2 vs 7-2 expected (Tenreyro and Dhingra voted to keep rates unchanged, similar to the December meeting)
• Further increases in bank rate may be required
• If there were to be evidence of more persistent pressures, then further tightening of monetary policy would be required
• CPI likely to have peaked
• Inflation to fall to 3.92% by Q4 2023 (previous forecast 5.2%)
• Inflation risks still skewed significantly to the upside
• Full statement

There are some minor changes to the forward guidance by the BOE but if I were to read it, it would mean that policymakers are hinting that a top is coming soon. The sentence where they mention that "if there were to be evidence of more persistent pressures, then further tightening in monetary policy would be required" does it for me, instead of having previously said that they would "respond forcefully, as necessary".

All in all, it is a pretty much expected decision and statement from the central bank. This fits with expectations that they will shift towards 25 bps increments next and I don't see anything that sounds too hawkish or dovish at first glance.

There was a bit of a whipsaw in cable on the decision in itself, between 1.2320 and 1.2390 before settling around 1.2330 levels currently. I reckon that was caused by some quarters perhaps thinking that the BOE might surprise on the dovish side with a 25 bps rate hike announcement today.

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2023-02-02 12:01:47Z
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