Forex technical analysis: GBPUSD trades below the 200 hour MA

A close on the hourly would be the first since December 27th

The GBPUSD is currently trading below the 200 hour MA (green line at 1.35179). The price currently trades at 1.35153. A close below the MA line will be the first hourly bar since December 27th. That is a change in bias and should lead to further erosion. The next target comes in at 1.34926 which is the 38.2% of the move up from the December 15th low. It is also the swing lows from December 29th and January 3rd. As such it is a key target.

The ball to the downside today got rolling when the price could not extend above the ceiling in the 1.3576-85 area (see post from yesterday). That area has been home to a number of swing levels over the last few trading days. Back on Jan 2 and 3, the price broke above this area, tried to stay above (see green circle 2 and 3) but failed.

The fall back below the 100 hour MA was also a catalyst for a further decline today.

Admittedly, the price has been trading up and down. One can argue that the 1.34926 is the key floor that the price needs to get below and stay below. However, holding the ceiling is bearish. Moving below the 100 hour MA is bearish. Moving below the lows from Friday and Monday at 1.3522 is bearish, and moving below the 200 hour MA is bearish. So the steps are being made to breakout one-by-one.

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